2016 Cowboys Draft: Possible Trade Scenarios #6

The Cowboys have historically been active on draft day. This year they are likely to be even more so. In this series we will take a look at different scenarios that could play out on draft day. This is the sixth of a ten part series that looks at possible draft combinations that make plausible sense.

Determining possible trade scenarios is difficult because, you have to find trade partners willing to deal with you. Second, you have to get or give enough value to make it worth the trade. So as we look at the scenarios, we first need to make a few assumptions. These are:

1. For each scenario we need to find a partner that has a need that they may want to go up for. We will analyze the win for each team in those trades.
2. The article uses the widely distributed Draft Value Chart to determine trades that somewhat have equal value. When there is a point difference, the team moving up will typically be the one overpaying to make the trade happen.
3. We assume the Cowboys strategy will be to move down to pick up additional picks.

Scenario six will build on the scenario five scenario. It will be a trade down to the 7^th pick, but the Cowboys don’t get what they want and trade down again to pick up a second rounder. The trades are:

• Cowboys dropping down to the 7^th pick to get San Francisco’s 68^th and 105^th picks.
• Trade the 7^th pick to the Raiders for pick number 14^th and the 44^th.
• Trade their 101^st, 135^th, and 189^th for the Steelers 89^th.

We looked at the trade down to 7 in the last article. The Cowboys would be hoping that one of the top two QBs, Ramsey or Jack fall to them at 7. Zeke would be the backup in case everyone is off the board.

But in this scenario, let’s assume that the worst case happened and everyone they wanted is off the board at seven. The Cowboys had a board with Bosa, Lawson, Stanley or Hargreaves is the choice. For our trade to happen, the Raiders would have to be enamored with one of them.

The Cowboys would have a gluttony of picks if they make these first two trades, so they want to get back into the third round for a starting caliber player. They use three picks to do this. It is a good move for the Steelers who need depth and it would let the Cowboys get another A-/B+ player.

In this scenario the Cowboys would wind up with the 14^th, 34^th, 44^th, 67^th, 68^th, 89^th, 105^th, 212^th, 216^th, and 217^th in this scenario. That means they will have 7 of the top 105 picks.

Here are many possible draft combinations under this scenario. Let’s look at a few of them:

Pick	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Option 4	Dream 1	Dream 2
14	Leonard Floyd (OLB)	S. Rankins (DT3)	R. Ragland (MLB)	L. Treadwell (WR)	Shaq Lawson (DE)	V. Hargreaves (CB)
34	J. Bullard (DE/DT)	K. Dodd (DE)	E. Ogbah (DE)	Butler (DT)	Will Jackson (CB)	R. Nkemdiche (DT)
44	Artie Burns (CB)	Vonn Bell (S)	Chris Jones (DT)	K. Fuller (CB)	J. Bullard (DE/DT)	W. Fuller (WR)
67	Nick Martin (C/G)	Nick Martin (C/G)	Xavien Howard (CB)	Carl Nassib (DE)	Shepard (WR)	Nick Martin (C/G)
68	Boyd (WR)	Boyd (WR)	Keanu Neal (S)	Dixon (RB)	Dixon (RB)	Booker (RB)
89	Dion Jones (OLB)	Maurice Canady (CB)	Jonathan Williams (RB)	Jalen Mills (DB)	Dion Jones (OLB)	Jeremy Cash (SS)
105	Prosise (RB)	Drake (RB)	K. Listenbee (WR)	C. McGovern (C/G)	Miles Killebrew (SS)	Ronald Blair (DE)
212	Tyvis Powell (S)	Tyvis Powell (S)	Tyrone Holmes (DE)	Anthony Zettel (DE)	Tyrone Holmes (DE)	Tyrone Holmes (DE)
216	Derek Watt (FB)	Derek Watt (FB)	Derek Watt (FB)	Derek Watt (FB)	Derek Watt (FB)	Derek Watt (FB)
217	Brandon Allen (QB)	Brandon Allen (QB)	Kevin Hogan (QB)	Kevin Hogan (QB)	Jacoby Brissett (QB)	Brandon Doughty (QB)

 

To me this scenario enforces my original thoughts that the Cpwboys should trade down to 12-15 if they are going to trade down. They get a similar caliber player than they would in the 7-9 range, but they get much more value in return.

It also confirms that the Cowboys could trade back to 7 and wait for the draft to come to them. If a player they want falls to them, then it worked out perfectly. If all the players they want are gone, they can still trade back and stock pile picks.

The first mock for this scenario we take the best edge rusher in this draft. He is a top 10 talent and has the potential for a 15 sack season. Floyd is drastically undervalued and would make a difference immediately for the Cowboys. I realize he is probably a better fit for a 34 scheme, but he would be the strong side linebacker and on passing downs be a pass rush specialist. As a linebacker, I watched tape where he covered a running back 30 yards down field and had a pass defense. So he can play the 20-25 plays the Cowboys are in base formation, then he can rush 20 plays again as a DE.

To continue the mock, the Cowboys get Bullard, who can play DE and the three tech. He is disruptive and would add depth to the D-Line. Artie Burns is long, athletic corner who would be a starter by years end. Martin and Boyd would provide depth at key offensive positions. Boyd may not be there, Shepard may also be an option if not. Dion Jones has the potential to be an all-pro caliber Will. Prosise provides the third down/change of pace back the Cowboys need. In the sixth, the Cowboys get a tall, rangy safety, fullback, and quarterback they can develop.

In the second mock, the Cowboys get an explosively quick three technique, followed by a DE that will be a natural left DE. They then get a starting quality safety with the third pick. Next they move to the offense and get a future starting center and receiver (Martin and Boyd). They then get a talented corner with upside (Canady). Drake is a third down nightmare for defenses and will contribute right away. The sixth round is the same with a safety, fullback and QB.

In option three, the Cowboys decide to draft their MLB of the future. They continue to address their defensive needs with picks 2-5. They draft an athletic DE, the quickest DT off the snap (Jones), a physical corner (Howard), and a rising safety (Neal). They come back and add depth to the offense with a talented running back (Howard) and speedy receiver (Listenbee). The Cowboys get an interesting DE prospect in the sixth, along with a fullback and developmental QB with a high IQ and upside.

In the fourth mock, the Cowboys get the number one receiver in the draft. They then draft a disruptive DT that can play the one and the three. Fuller is not my favorite player, but many scouts have him rated highly on their boards. The Cowboys do get a starting caliber DE in Nassib who was a very prolific sacker in college. I think Dixon will be there in the early third and would be a good pick up for the Cowboys. Mills is another player that is not a personal favorite, but he does give you athleticism and versatility. McGovern will be your starting center within the next two to three years. Zettel is a hard working DE that could probably add weight and play the three tech. he has an outstanding motor.

In the dream option, Shaq Lawson falls to 14^th. Some teams are concerned with his athleticism and health. So it is a possibility. Jackson could fall, he is all over the place on scouts boards. It would take some luck but it is not implausible. The rest of the picks are in line with where they should go in the draft.

In dream option two, Hargreaves falls to 14. This could happen. Some teams will not draft small corners. So he could fall to 14. Same goes for Nkemdiche. There are a lot of teams that will not have him on their boards. So if the cards fall correctly, he may be there. It might be the best place for him as far as effort goes. He will be pushed. Getting Fuller with the 44^th could be a stretch, but there are other receivers that could fall. Martin and Booker would be good gets in the early third. Cash is falling in many boards because of his over aggressiveness and cover skills. However, I love him. Watch his tape, he is the best hitter in the draft. Blair and Homes give you an interesting pair at DE. They can get to the QB.

That all for scenario 6. Let me know your thoughts. Who would you pick, which mock do you like or dislike. Do you like this mock better or worse than the previous five scenarios? Which is your favorite?

I appreciate your feedback and comments. Keep them coming.