2016 Plan I: Predicting Tony Romo’s Return And When The Cowboys Clinch The NFC East

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I’ve been writing this post, in my head, for the last 67 days. I said so with this tweet shortly after it was announced that Tony Romo would miss some serious time this season.

RE: Romo I'll have:

????: #OchoLive at 6pm CT
????: Emergency #RJOShow (https://t.co/NH1UAxxu20)
????: 2016 Plan I at @InsideTheStarDC

It's time.

— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) August 27, 2016

2016 Plan I… what exactly is that? Through the horror of the 2015 season here at Inside The Star, I wrote a series of “plans” (for example 2015 Dallas Cowboys: Anything Can Happen) that continually kept the Cowboys in the hunt for the NFC East crown. In this particular plan I also shared a personal interaction that I had with Tony Romo a decade ago.

Tony Romo… our quarterback. We are approaching the one year anniversary of when we last saw him take a regular season snap – Thanksgiving 2015. The subject of when Tony will take his first one of this season has been hotly contested, and one that Owner/President/General Manager Jerry Jones has weighed in on frequently, and most recently this past Tuesday on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas.

“I don’t think that unquestionably Tony is going to be ready to go at some point near the end of the year, and we’ll be able to evaluate things at that time.” -Jerry Jones

This sent Cowboys Nation into quite the tizzy. Why? Only the words, near the end of the year.

These are big – albeit subjective – words, and ones that have some big implications if meant in particular contexts. I digested Jerry Jones’ words and dissected them to the point that I had an epiphany regarding Tony Romo’s inevitable return. I discussed this on Tuesday’s episode of OchoLive.

 

You ready for my epiphany, Cowboys Nation?

Tony Romo will return on Thanksgiving Day when the Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Redskins. 

Why do I believe this? Consider the following:

• Whether you are Team Tony or Team Dak you undoubtedly agree that the moment the Cowboys pull a healthy Romo in favor of Prescott is when the real controversy begins. There is no way the Cowboys want to have to cross that bridge. In their minds, obviously, if they bring Romo back he’ll flourish and things will be great.
• Tony Romo’s kryptonite over the last two seasons has been short weeks. He struggled mightily on Thanksgiving Day in 2014 when the Cowboys lost to the Eagles, and that was because he was more healthy than ever at that point. It was the same story a year later when, after his return four days earlier in Miami, Romo played poorly against the Panthers before suffering the injury that would finally end his season. If Romo were to return on Thanksgiving Day he would not have to play two games in five days, he’d be making his debut and be totally fresh. The Cowboys play seven days after Turkey Day on Thursday, December 1st in Minnesota then get 10 days to rest before traveling to New York to visit the Giants.
• The Cowboys are currently 6-1 and have three AFC games between now and the all-important Thanksgiving Day. Why does it matter that they’re AFC games? They’re less important. I’m not diminishing the value of any single game in the NFL, but the most important games are within your division and conference as those serve as the primary tiebreakers. Dallas is currently 2-1 within the NFC East and 5-1 within the NFC, no other NFC team has more than 3 wins in conference. This means that the Cowboys will – regardless of how the next three weeks go – enter Thanksgiving with those credentials at their back.

This is the answer. This is when Tony Romo will return. Lock it up and throw away the key.

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So what of this plan, RJ? You just outlined Tony Romo’s return, but you promised to tell me how/when the Cowboys will win the NFC East!

I did promise, and here I am to deliver. Welcome to 2016 Plan I. It’s beautiful. Here are the current NFC East standings:

1. Dallas Cowboys: 6-1 Overall, 2-1 in NFC East
2. New York Giants: 4-3 Overall, 1-1 in NFC East
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 4-3 Overall, 0-2 in NFC East
4. Washington Redskins: 4-3-1 Overall, 2-1 in NFC East

NFC East Through Week 14

NFC East	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14
Dallas Cowboys	@ CLE	@ PIT	BAL	WAS	@ MIN	@ NYG
New York Giants	PHI	CIN	CHI	@ CLE	@ PIT	DAL
Philadelphia Eagles	@ NYG	ATL	@ SEA	GB	@ CIN	WAS
Washington Redskins	BYE	MIN	GB	@ DAL	@ ARI	@ PHI

These are the next six weeks for the most storied division in professional football. This is all it’s going to take, six painless weeks until you can order your NFC East Champions merchandise. Want to know how? I’m always here to please. The next version of this data has wins highlighted in green and losses highlighted in red. I believe this to be a conservative approach to each team’s chances over the next month and a half.

NFC East	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14
Dallas Cowboys	@ CLE	@ PIT	BAL	WAS	@ MIN	@ NYG
New York Giants	PHI	CIN	CHI	@ CLE	@ PIT	DAL
Philadelphia Eagles	@ NYG	ATL	@ SEA	GB	@ CIN	WAS
Washington Redskins	BYE	MIN	GB	@ DAL	@ ARI	@ PHI

Say this actually happened. This would mean:

1. Dallas Cowboys: 11-2 Overall, 4-1 in NFC East
2. New York Giants: 7-6 Overall, 2-2 in NFC East
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 7-6 Overall, 0-4 in NFC East
4. Washington Redskins: 6-6-1 Overall, 3-2 in NFC East

Why did I stop at Week 14? What do all of these colors mean? It all makes sense, my friend.

At this point there would be three games left in the season. Because the Cowboys play the Giants, who I believe will have the best run in the next five weeks of our NFC East foes, in Week 14 they have a chance to deliver the finishing blow and get to 11 wins which would be mathematically impossible for the Giants and Eagles with only three left.

If you want you can even forget the games, forget the colors. Here is the recipe to the Cowboys winning the NFC East over the next six weeks:

• Cowboys Win Five Of The Next Six: This includes games against Cleveland (duh), Baltimore (extremely winnable, I was just being conservative), Washington without Trent Williams, and Minnesota who just saw their Offensive Coordinator resign.
• Giants And Eagles Both Go 3-3: This is very feasible because you’re talking about teams that are 4-3 currently, so that’s their pace. What makes things particularly interesting is they play each other in Week 9 so one of them will already be one third of the way there. I’m of the belief that Cowboys Nation should root for Philadelphia to win this game because their five weeks following Sunday are more difficult than New York’s. Additionally if Philadelphia does win and the Giants are one third of the way there, the fact that Dallas also plays New York in this stretch gives us the chance to account for the second third… meaning they would only need to lose one of their other four games.
• Redskins Win No More Than Three Games: Here again we have the benefit of playing the Redskins in this stretch. Assuming the Cowboys win on Thanksgiving when I have predicted Tony Romo will return, this means they would have to go a perfect 4-0 just to prolong their hopes of defending their NFC East title from a season ago. Three of those other four games will be played without the services of Trent Williams so that’s a tough sell.

This is all very manageable, if not likely. We have eight weeks of data in order for us to draw conclusions about these teams and discern what will happen over the course of the next six.

Tony Romo will return on Thanksgiving Day and the Cowboys will clinch the NFC East on Sunday, December 11th in New York. Huzzah.

What do you think of my thoughts on Tony Romo’s return and Plan I? Let us know! Comment below, Email me at RJ.Ochoa@SlantSports.com, or Tweet to me at @RJOchoa!