What’s up Inside The Star Fantasy Football Family!
At my house growing up, we regularly had taco nights. Mom and Dad would cook up some ground beef and re-fried beans, we’d have hard shells and flour tortillas, tomatoes, cheese, lettuce, onions, and salsa.
What I found as a kid, is the salsa was pretty important.
If you didn’t have good salsa or hot sauce, the tacos would be good, but missing something. And if the salsa or hot sauce wasn’t very good, as you know, it could ruin the tacos.
With that in mind…
Welcome to the first addition of Hot Sauce/Weak Sauce!
There are players in the NFL who are matchup-dependent, and there are players who are unaffected by matchups and extenuating circumstances. A lot of what Fantasy Football is about is taking risks given the right matchup.
This is the space where I’ll highlight several players each week that will surprise. They’ll either bring the Hot Sauce or that Weak Sauce.
Hot Sauce
These are the guys who aren’t too highly ranked going into their team’s matchup, but have a chance to have a big game.
Defining the Hot Sauce
[table id=84 /]
This is based on the consensus rankings put together by FantasyPros.com
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Dak Prescott is becoming the quarterback of the future before our very eyes. Each week he seems to get better and better.
This week, he’s on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers, who have been Jekyll and Hyde in the 2016 season.
After shutting out the Los Angeles Rams’ anemic offense in week one, the 49ers have given up 37+ each of the last two weeks, to the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks.
This is a very good matchup for Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. I’d be willing to start him in any and every format in Fantasy Football.
Flawless Forecast: 275 yards passing and three total touchdowns.
Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
The rookie running back for the Chicago Bears had probably the most productive day of any Chicago offensive player not named Zach Miller.
He turned 15 touches into 92 total yards while averaging five yards per carry, including a 36 yard run on his first carry of the game.
The Detroit Lions aren’t very good on defense. They’re giving up an average of 114.67 rushing yards per game this season. Chicago needs to run it well in order to keep the Detroit offense off the field and make things easier for their quarterback, whoever plays.
Flawless Forecast: 17 touches 97 total yards and one touchdown
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins
I think it’s time to admit Terrelle Pryor is no longer a quarterback trying to play wide receiver, he is a wide receiver. Hue Jackson and the Cleveland Browns are finding ways to get him involved on multiple levels and he has been dynamic.
On Sunday, Pryor completed 3/5 passing for 35 yards, rushed four times for 21 yards and a touchdown, and caught eight passes on 14 targets for 144 yards. His day included a 40 yard reception.
Maybe the most diverse and dynamic stat line we will see from a player in 2016.
In week four, the Cleveland Browns face a Washington Redskins defense that has one of the best corners in the league, but not much else.
I have a feeling the Redskins aren’t going to use Josh Norman to shadow Pryor. I also expect Hue Jackson to continue to find clever ways to get Terrelle Pryor the football.
Flawless Forecast: 25 yards rushing, 6 catches for 110 yards, one touchdown.
Tyrell Williams, WR, San Diego Chargers vs New Orleans Saints
Seriously, the New Orleans Saints can’t stop anyone. They’ve allowed over 400 total yards each week this season.
The San Diego Chargers are putting up plenty of yards as well. Tyrell Williams has been the biggest beneficiary of the season-ending injury to wide receiver Keenan Allen. In week three, Williams led the Chargers with 9 targets and converted those to six catches for 69 yards.
Flawless Forecast: Six catches 97 yards, and one touchdown.
Weak Sauce
Defining the Weak Sauce
[table id=85 /]
This is based on the consensus rankings put together by FantasyPros.com
These are the guys who will be starters for more than half of your fantasy football rosters that may struggle.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers
If you’ve followed me for very long, you know my feeling about Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints away from the Superdome. I don’t like it.
I’m a big investor in Drew Brees on an annual basis, but they aren’t the same team on the road as they are in New Orleans. Now take them out doors and they aren’t very good.
Week two in the New Meadowlands, the New Orleans Saints only scored 13 points. In week one and week three they put up over 30 points at home. That’s a huge difference.
Also take into account the San Diego Chargers are pretty good against the pass. They held Andrew Luck without a touchdown pass until T.Y. Hilton broke free for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
I will probably start him, because my other quarterback’s matchup is worse, but if you have a QB with a better matchup, I’d roll the dice.
Flawless Forecast: 225 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
LeSean McCoy had a great week three against the Arizona Cardinals. He eclipsed 100 yards rushing and added two scores.
In week four, the Buffalo Bills have a more difficult task ahead of them facing the New England Patriots.
The Patriots have only allowed one team to reach 100 yards in three games. The Bills didn’t rush for more than 90 yards in each of the first two weeks of the 2016 season.
I think the 2016 version of the New England Patriots defense is really good and it’s going to be tough for the Bills to gain much traction.
I have McCoy as a low end RB2 or flex play in week four.
Flawless Forecast: 20 touches, 60 yards, and zero touchdowns
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers
The San Diego Chargers held some really good passing teams in check during the 2015 season. For much of their game Sunday vs the Indianapolis Colts, they kept Andrew Luck from throwing a touchdown pass until late in the fourth quarter.
In week two they held the Jacksonville Jaguars to 14 points and only 207 passing. They are very good.
Brandin Cooks got locked down by an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that had allowed over 800 yards passing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Oakland Raiders to start the season.
Odds are you are going to start Cooks in week four, but the odds are better that he is going to disappoint.
Flawless Forecast: Three Catches, 46 yards, and zero touchdowns.
